Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
