The average count of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers might not signal improved countrywide security.
Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the lowest number of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.
Recent Background and Government Plan
Intense cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
- Greater cooperation between government agencies.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns
However, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.
“This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”
As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on homicides is not valid for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.
“Relying on the per-day mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.
Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress
Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger
But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.
A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.
“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas remarked.
